Factoring Out the Recession

Just as an additional note, the economy itself is not to blame for a $1.3 trillion deficit in 2011. According to this graphic in the New York Times, based on CBO budget projections, the recession is responsible for $480 billion of the loss in government revenue. Likewise, this chart pegs the recession's responsibility at about $400 billion or so.

Of course, I admit that the situation is very complex. One could potentially argue that if George W. Bush hadn't lowered taxes during the last decade, the recession might have been worse—although I would certainly find this argument a tough sell. But it still shows that even if the economy suddenly started chugging along with steady growth, we'd still be at best $800 billion in the hole.

Now, repeal the Bush tax cuts, and that helps a little more, bringing us up another $300 billion or so. Save another $200 billion by getting us out of Iraq and Afghanistan. If those two things happen, we're still a good $300 $600 billion in the red.

So, in a rosy world with strong economic growth, Clinton-era taxes, and no wars, we still have some pretty tough choices to make. Now, what do we do with the real world?

Updates: As I learned in this NYTimes Editorial, apparently the proposed 2011 accounts for letting the Bush-era tax cuts expire at the end of 2010.